Operating scope

Country head

Capability

All capabilities

Active handovers

Outcomes written back

Connected work · Agent system

Business vertical

Finance, risk and shared services

Agent on shift

Reconciliation Agent

Accountable person

Controllers

Evidence · hourly

General ledger

Next step

MarginOS

MarginOS · screen 03 of 07

Waste and fresh yield

Waste that tracks production timing is not a forecasting problem.

3 issues · 2 waiting on you

Issues in scope

3 instances across 2 places

Waiting on you

0 already decided in this session

Three largest

AED 26.6m–AED 80.3m

Modelled annual value, three largest only

Running without asking

1 armed and waiting on a threshold

Decision owner

Country head

Returns to Country head, Group

Scope

Oman

27 stores · all capabilities

Listen

Fresh waste by storeForecast errorDelivery timingCentral kitchen output

Process

Waste against forecast errorDivergence means the cause is not demandKitchen timing against the demand curve

Act

Production timing proposalTo the country headStanding arm on divergence

Written backEvery outcome returns to the systems that produced the evidence.

KindOrder

Queue

3 issues · 2 waiting on you

Armed

Nothing currently notices when waste stops tracking demand

Jaber Al Ahmad

What happened

Waste is reported as a percentage. Whether it is moving with forecast error or away from it is not measured anywhere, so a cause outside the store is indistinguishable from a cause inside it.

Why it matters

Divergence is the single most useful signal in fresh, because it tells you the store is not the problem. Without it, every waste conversation starts by blaming the store, which is where most of them also end.

Already done

Armed on divergence rather than on the waste level, so it fires on cause rather than on symptom.

Worth

AED 15.4m to AED 47.5m a yearModelledDivergence separates a kitchen cause from a store cause. Value is the fresh conversations that stop starting by blaming the store.Waste causes correctly attributed

Then what

Threshold armed on divergence across every storeGroupStanding, no return date

Threshold

Waste and forecast error diverging in any store beyond tolerance

Fires

Fires with the store and the likely external cause attached, because divergence means the cause sits outside the store

Approve

The stores affected cannot fix this themselves

Oman

What happened

A central kitchen window serves multiple stores. Four store managers receiving a waste action can do nothing about when production runs.

Why it matters

Sent to stores this produces effort without a change, and it takes attention from the actions stores can act on. The decision sits with the country because the asset does.

Already done

The proposal is prepared at country level with the store level evidence attached.

Worth

AED 6.3m to AED 18.2m a yearModelledA proposal sent to the owner of the asset rather than to stores that cannot change it. Value is the share that gets executed rather than acknowledged.Waste actions reaching the right owner

Then what

Production proposal with timing evidenceCountry headReports back 30 Sept

If approved

The production proposal goes to the Oman country head with the timing evidence

If declined

It goes to store managers who cannot change a central kitchen window

Choose

Waste at 5 Oman stores follows the kitchen production window, not forecast error

Oman

What happened

At these stores waste rises and falls with when the central kitchen produces, while forecast error stays flat. Everywhere else in the country the two move together, which is what a demand problem looks like.

Why it matters

Fresh waste is treated as a forecasting failure almost everywhere, and forecasting teams have been working on it. At these stores forecasting is not the problem and no amount of forecast improvement will move the number.

Already done

The divergence is isolated and three fixes are costed, each landing on a different owner.

Worth

AED 4.9m to AED 14.6m a yearModelledWaste tracking production timing rather than forecast error. Value is the share of fresh waste attributable to timing, times what a window change recovers.Waste against forecast error divergence

Then what

Chosen fix costed and scoped to the kitchenCountry headReports back 30 Sept